The Cardinals entered July at 47-42, one game behind the Marlins for the third NL Wild Card spot, and somehow nobody outside of St. Louis is paying attention. That’s fine. The national baseball media can keep filing their Cubs takes and dissecting the Phillies’ rotation depth. Cardinals fans have earned the right to look at these standings and feel something they haven’t felt since April: genuine optimism.
The story that deserves to be told right now is Dustin May. Since April 10, May has posted a 2.54 ERA and a 2.68 FIP across 74.1 innings — ninth-best in all of baseball over that stretch. That’s not a hot streak. That’s a sustained run of elite starting pitching from a guy who spent years fighting through Tommy John recovery. The analysis section has been tracking the team’s full-season trajectory, and it’s worth the read, because there’s a wrinkle: the team ERA of 3.96 ranks 11th in MLB, but the FIP sits at 4.53. St. Louis is outperforming its true-talent pitching level by more than half a run. The Cardinals are winning some games they probably shouldn’t be winning on paper. May, though, is legitimately this good — his FIP says so.
The offense isn’t just tagging along, either. Jordan Walker is hitting .291 with an .870 OPS, roughly 20 home runs, and over 10 stolen bases — the cornerstone of a lineup that finally looks like what Cardinals fans imagined when he arrived. Alec Burleson is at .287 with an .848 OPS and more than 50 RBI, quietly producing at a clip that would earn All-Star buzz on a bigger stage. And JJ Wetherholt — a name most casual fans still can’t place — is posting a 120 wRC+ with elite OAA marks, making him one of the more quietly valuable players in the NL.
The standings picture is straightforward: Cubs at 50-40, Phillies at 50-41, Marlins at 48-42, Cardinals at 47-42. One game out of the third spot with more than two months of baseball remaining. The opinion section has covered the ceiling debate from multiple angles, but the record reflects a club that competes night after night. This team has played its way into a legitimate chase.
.@TheDanGuerrero reports an important addendum to Dustin May avoiding the IL with roster moves Friday.
He avoids the IL, for now, Guerrero reports.
There's a significant test coming Saturday and #stlcards could just reverse their call Friday: https://t.co/I5Ki4xEpRp
— Derrick Goold (@dgoold) July 4, 2026
None of this comes with a clean bow on it, though. The trade deadline is three weeks out, and the Cardinals are reportedly listening on Dustin May. Read that back. The pitcher who is the entire reason this Wild Card conversation exists is potentially available. If St. Louis moves May for prospects, the pitching narrative collapses immediately, and so does the realistic case for October baseball. The FIP-ERA gap means the staff has been punching above its weight; May is the single player suppressing that regression. Trading him would be a reasonable organizational decision with a long view toward 2028. It would also be a dagger to a fanbase that has had exactly one reason to feel good about this season.
For now, the Cardinals are alive. May is dealing, Walker is producing, and the Wild Card door is open. Enjoy it while the standings say you can.
